Did a monk really predict 'damage once Thailand has a female PM'?

Originally published at Siam Voices on September 20, 2011 Thais can be a superstitious bunch of people. Whether it's amulets or tattoos, many just do not want to take any chances. When it comes to political fortune telling, much attention is paid to the men, who have gained such wisdom to give a prophecy about how the balance of power will play out in the future. Some of them are (intentionally) cryptic, some are more concrete (but yet wrong) - nevertheless, such things regularly make the headlines in Thailand, as seen recently when former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was surveying the flooding situation in Sing Buri province:

(ที่มา ข่าวสดออนไลน์)

(...) นายอภิสิทธิ์ได้เข้านมัสการพระธรรมสิงหบุราจารย์ (หรือหลวงปู่จรัญ ฐิตธมฺโม) ที่วัดอัมพวัน (...) พร้อมกับสนทนาขอข้อมูลและคำแนะนำถึงการแก้ไขสถานการณ์น้ำท่วม (...)

ในระหว่างการสนทนาหลวงพ่อจรัญ กล่าวกับนายอภิสิทธิ์และกลุ่มสื่อมวลชน (...) เคยได้อ่านคำทำนายของหลวงพ่อฤาษีลิงดำกันหรือยัง (...) ถ้าประเทศไทยมีนายกฯ เป็นผู้หญิงจะทำให้บ้านเมืองเสียหาย มีปัญหา จึงขอให้นายอภิสิทธิ์รักษาเนื้อ รักษาตัวให้ดี เพราะจะได้กลับมาเป็นนายกฯ อีกครั้งหนึ่งแน่ (...)

(via Khao Sod Online)

(...) Abhisit paid respect to Phra Dharma Singha Bhurajarn (also known as Luang Pho Jaran) at Wat Amphawan (...) and to discuss the flood situation.

During the the discussion, Luang Pho Jaran asked if Abhisit or members of the press (...) have read the prophecies by Luang Pho Ruesi Ling Dam. (...) "If Thailand has a female prime minister, the country will take damage and have problems." Thus, [Luang Pho Jaran told] Mr. Abhisit should take good care of himself, since he will surely be prime minister a second time. (...)

""หลวงปู่จรัญ" ยกคำทำนายฤาษีลิงดำทัก "มาร์ค" นั่งนายกฯรอบ2 เหตุผู้นำหญิงทำบ้านเมืองเสียหาย", Matichon, September 16, 2011, translation by me

Now that sounds very concrete and something that Abhisit and like-minded people probably love to hear at the moment. But if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. When you look at another Thai newspaper, things kind of start to appear not the same way as they did at the beginning. Thai Rath ran the headline "Double premiership awaits, Mark rejoices, Ruesi Ling Dam predicts" and wrote in their subheader:

หลวงพ่อจรัญ ยกคำทำนายเกจิดังหลวงพ่อฤษีลิงดำ ทัก"มาร์ค"จะได้รีเทิร์นนายกรัฐมนตรีรอบสอง แนะรักษาเนื้อรักษาตัวให้ดี เพื่อจะได้กลับมาดูแลทุกข์สุขของประชาชน...

Luang Pho Jaran cites prophecy by Luang Pho Ruesi Ling Dam that "Mark" [Abhisit's nickname] will return as prime minister for a second time, advises him to take good care of himself in order to take care of the people again...

"ได้เบิ้ลนายกฯ มาร์คปลื้ม ฤษีลิงดำทำนาย", Thai Rath, September 16, 2011

Now who said what? And has any monk predicted chaos once this country is governed by a woman? And how can the monk foresee a second prime minister tenure for Abhisit? This small religious gaffe prompted Wat Tha Sung, the temple of the aforementioned Luang Pho Ruesi Ling Dam to issue following statement:

ตามที่มีข่าวลงในหน้าหนังสือพิมพ์หลายฉบับ นับตั้งแต่วันที่ 16 กันยายน 2554 ทางทีมงานฯ เว็บวัดท่าซุงขอชี้แจงว่า เป็นความเข้าใจคลาดเคลื่อนในเรื่อง "คำทำนาย" เหล่านี้ เพราะสมัยที่พระเดชพระคุณหลวงพ่อพระราชพรหมยาน "ฤาษีลิงดำ" ท่านไม่เคยมีคำทำนายเหล่านี้ออกมาเผยแพร่ เพราะท่านไม่ได้เข้าไปยุ่งเกี่ยวในด้านการเมืองแต่อย่างใด (...)

After reports in several newspaper on September 16, 2011, Wat Tha Sung wants to clarify that there is a misinterpretation of the "prophecy" because Luang Pho Ruesi Ling Dam has never said such things because his holiness has not intervened into politics at all. (...)

ฉะนั้น ทางทีมงานฯ จึงขอยืนยันว่า แม้ในปัจจุบันนี้ทางวัดท่าซุงก็มิได้เชื่อถือคำทำนายเหล่านี้ โดยเฉพาะคำพูดของหลวงพ่อจรัญใน "ไทยรัฐ" ที่กล่าวว่า "หลวงพ่อฤษีลิงดำ ทัก"มาร์ค"จะได้รีเทิร์นนายกรัฐมนตรีรอบสอง" นั้นเป็นไปไม่ได้แน่นอน เพราะหลวงพ่อฤาษีลิงดำท่านมรณภาพไปนานแล้ว และหากเป็นคำพูดจากหลวงพ่อจรัญด้วย คิดว่าท่านคงจะเข้าใจผิดอย่างแน่นอน

We insist that the temple now does not believe in that prophecy, especially Luang Pho Jaran's quote in "Thai Rath" that "Luang Pho Ruesi Ling Dam predicts that "Mark" will return as prime minister for a second time" - that is definitely impossible because Luang Pho Ruesi Ling Dam has passed away a long time ago [in 1992]

ถ้าท่านผู้อ่านเทียบเคียงกับหนังสือพิมพ์ทั้งสองฉบับนี้แล้ว [และ] "ข่าวสด" ที่อ้างหลวงปู่จรัลบอกว่า ถ้าประเทศไทยมีนายกฯ เป็นผู้หญิงจะทำให้บ้านเมืองเสียหาย มีปัญหา จะเห็นว่าการเสนอข่าวก็ยังไม่ตรงกัน แต่ถึงอย่างไรก็ทำให้ทางวัดเสียหาย และเกิดความข้องใจในโลกออนไลน์ เพราะมีการนำข้อข่าวเหล่านี้ไปโพสต์ออกความเห็นกันมีทั้งลบและบวก บางคนก็มีการจ้วงจาบไปโดยรู้เท่าไม่ถึงการณ์

If the readers compare both newspapers [and] "Khao Sod"'s citation of Luang Pho Jaran, that if Thailand has a female prime minister he country will take damage and have problems, you will see that their reporting is not the same. But nevertheless it brings the temple into disrepute and raises doubt online because this will be posted to express their opinions, which has both its positive and negative sides. Some will show disrespect because of that limited knowledge [about the subject].

ด้วยเหตุนี้ จึงขอให้ทุกท่านที่ได้อ่านข่าวนี้แล้ว โปรดใช้วิจารณญาณไตร่ตรอง "ข่าว" (...)

We request all readers to use caution towards "news" (...)

Official Statement by Wat Tha Sung, September 17, 2011, translated by me

Thanks to shoddy reporting by both Khao Sod and Thai Rath some people have unnecessarily raised their hopes that things might change sooner than later and have posthumously attributed a monk with an outlandish prophecy. Call it karma, call it fate, but again: if something's too good to be true, it probably is.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Bangkok, Thailand. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and now also on his public Facebook page here.

Can the new Thai Foreign Minister actually speak English?

Originally published at Siam Voices on August 18, 2011 Surapong Towijakchaikul is not somebody to be jealous of for his job right now. The new Thai foreign minister is being criticized from all possible sides, much for him being simply unqualified because he lacks diplomatic background* and he's just there to help Thaksin getting into more countries again.

And now we have this shocking revelation by Spring News TV reporter Techawat Sukrak (เตชะวัฒน์ สุขรักษ์):

มีเรื่องฮาเมื่อรมต.ตปท.แถลงข่าว ต้องให้จนท.เป็นล่ามแปลเพื่อตอบคำถามต่อสื่อต่างประเทศ ทำเอาสื่อไทยงง!!รมต.ต่างประเทศฟัง-พูดอังกฤษไม่ได้เหรอ

Funny story: During a press conference, the FM [foreign minister] had this staff translating the answer to a question from foreign media, which confused the Thai reporters!! Can't the foreign minister understand and speak English?!

Tweet by @TOM_SPRINGNEWS at 16:28h, August 17, 2011 - translation by me

Well, can he speak English at all?

First off, his official bio states that he has a Master's degree and PhD in engineering from Youngstown State University and University of Akron respectively, both located in the US state of Ohio. Second, if Surapong is supposedly not capable of speaking and understanding, how then did he manage to do a whole interview in English with Anasuya Sanyal of Channel News Asia** (which was quite candid by the way)?

It is one thing to have somebody translating, especially if you're unsure of saying the right words since Surapong is allegedly, you know, not qualified enough to be a diplomat and thus speaking diplomatically. But it is an entirely different thing if somebody in his position being absolutely incapable of speaking and understanding the English language - like German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle (you know, the guy who let Thaksin back in) for example, who outright refused to answer a question in English from a BBC reporter right after the last elections in 2009, saying that "since it is common in the United Kingdom to speak English, it is common to speak German here in Germany," - now that's top-notch statesmanship right from the get-go...!

*One could argue that the last foreign minister Kasit Piromya has the best background as a former ambassador to Germany and Japan - but we all know better what happened to Thai foreign policy...!

**Anasuya confirmed on Twitter that the interview was entirely conducted in English

h/t to fellow Siam Voices contributor Panuwat Panduprasert

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Bangkok, Thailand. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and now also on his public Facebook page here.

Now Germany and soon Japan: More countries let Thaksin back in

Originally published at Siam Voices on August 15, 2011 We all know Thailand's ex-prime minister and on-the-run fugitive, Thaksin Shinawatra, is pretty busy traveling the world ever since he's out of Thailand. When he's not at his new home base in Dubai, he mostly goes on business trips, for example in Uganda. But the list of countries he can visit has kind of shrunk, despite his new citizenship of Montenegro and his Nicaraguan diplomatic passport. For example, when Thaksin sneaked into Germany and got a permanent residence permit in late 2008, the European country had thrown him out after they have found out about it a few months later.

It is now Germany again, who has recently revoked the entry ban for Thaksin (see previous coverage here), thanks to heavy lobbying by German conservative MPs and officially to the new political “situation in Thailand”, which of course enraged chief Thaksin-hunter Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, on his last days. Well, he might want to cool down now because he won't like what the Thai media have reported recently.

Matichon and Khao Sod have reported that Thaksin recently has made a trip to Germany and met Thai expat red shirts supporters there, both referring to the website "Thai Red EU" (caution: the website is overloaded with several audio livestreams going off at the same time!). According to the website, Thaksin visited Munich on August 5, on the same day that Yingluck was voted in as prime minister in parliament.

A few days later, on August 9, Thaksin arrived in Hamburg via his personal jet before he met with 'officials of the UDD EU' organization. Thaksin then attended a red shirt meeting at Wat Buddhabharami, a local Thai Buddhist temple, where a religious memorial service was held for the victims of last year's protests. In a speech after the service, he expressed delight to meet "so many Thais at once" and demanded his supporters to remain "patient" about "seeking justice". He was later seen at a Thai restaurant, dining with fellow red shirts and red organizers from many European countries such as Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France and Finland. Thaksin then left Hamburg after having spent about five hours in the North-German city. (Source: YouTube video 1, video 2)

Hamburg has a well-organized group of red shirts and it is quite possibly the center of the movement in Germany. The people behind have apparently good connections to Thaksin and are also well-connected to other red shirts all over Europe (although the total number of any group has not been verified yet), as seen during their rally on the eve of the anniversary of the military coup of 2006. What is also striking is that the German red shirts have a heavy focus on Thaksin as their personal champion. When comparing the red shirt rallies worldwide on September 19, 2010, you'll see that only the rally in Hamburg has references to the former prime minister - let alone a phone-in by him.

Thaksin has also previously entered Finland in mid-July. Reporters of the Helsink-based Helsingin Sanomat have spotted Thaksin during a private shopping trip in the Finish capital and quoted him praising the Scandinavian country and to have come for "over the tenth time." Finland is part of the Schengen Agreement, which does away with the internal border controls for most of continental Europe. Friends of the infamous Finland Conspiracy will take notice of this.

In related news, the Japanese government has reportedly granted Thaksin a special entry permit. Thaksin hopes to visit the areas affected by the earthquake and tsunami later this month, since he has donated an unspecified sum for disaster relief. This comes after the new Thai foreign minister, Surapong Towijakchaikul, had politely addressed the Japanese ambassador to Thailand, whether or not Thaksin could be let in to Japan - to which the ambassador asked if Thailand would mind. It also coincides with reports from Japan that its lawmakers have expressed their wish to let Thaksin in, even having met the former prime minister before last year - see something similar here?

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Bangkok, Thailand. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and now also on his public Facebook page here.

Tongue-Thai’ed! Part VII: Kasit’s last rant

Originally published at Siam Voices on August 2, 2011 “Tongue-Thai’ed!” encapsulates the most baffling, amusing, confusing, outrageous and appalling quotes from Thai politicians and other public figures – in short: everything we hear that makes us go “Huh?!”. Check out all past entries here.

Outgoing Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya has been one of the most vocal, if not the most colorful representative of this now past government, and given his position, also the whole of Thailand. During his tenure, Kasit has surprised the public and the international community for his erratic outspokenness and apparent fixation to hunt down Thaksin. One of the most infamous flare-ups was last year, when he lashed out against half of the world and suspected a world-wide, pro-Thaksin and anti-Thailand conspiracy.

Since this is this his last day, let's look at the most likely last public comment by Kasit - unless he threw a last-minute tantrum we haven't heard about yet.

The government is demanding answers after Germany reportedly re-granted a visa to deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya yesterday said the German government should explain to the international community the reasons for its decision, after revoking Thaksin's visa in 2008. (...)

"Kasit slams German decision", Bangkok Post, July 30 2011

Hold on, hold on - who's talking about a visa here? As previously reported here (and before anybody else did), the German government has revoked the entry ban for Thaksin a few weeks ago, not a word about a visa. That is something entirely different than, say, a country inviting somebody and granting him a visa in order to be able to enter the country!

But that didn't stop him from railing on:

Mr Kasit said the Germans were pursuing a double standard.

The German government had called on the Thai government to respect its law and justice system, after the German court seized a Thai Boeing 737 owned by His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn at Munich airport.

"But in Thaksin's criminal case, the German government cites the changing political climate here as the basis for re-granting a visa to him," said Mr Kasit. (...)

"Kasit slams German decision", Bangkok Post, July 30 2011

Again, it's not a visa! Kasit is referring to a statement by the German Embassy in Bangkok made last week in connection to the Walter Bau saga that has become the impounded plane saga. It is one thing when government or its embassy comments on a certain issue or case, it is another thing though if a government refuses to follow a verdict by an international tribunal and also not fully explain the pending appeal at a New York court (more details at Bangkok Pundit).

For the double standard accusation, even Thai officials disagree with him:

Attorney-General Julasing Wasantasing said it was Germany's right to decide whether to allow Thaksin to enter the country. The Thai government could not interfere, he said.

"Thaksin no longer banned from Germany, says Noppadon", The Nation, July 30 2011

Kasit concludes his rant:

"The German government was pressured by one of its coalition parties from the southern part of [Germany]," he said. Someone wanted to give Thaksin the right to re-enter the country. "I requested a meeting with members of that [German] party, but they refused to meet me."

"Kasit slams German decision", Bangkok Post, July 30 2011

He is right about the intense lobbying by conservative, Bavarian MPs which is undoubtedly very, very fishy and doesn't make those MPs look good. On the other hand, given Kasit's reputation (not only during his tenure as ambassador to Germany), it is hardly surprising why that German party had refused to him.

And now for the punchline:

Germany is obliged to answer why it appears sensitive to 15 million votes cast for a party to take power but ignores opposing votes, he said.

"Thaksin no longer banned from Germany, says Noppadon", The Nation, July 30 2011

Oh farewell, Foreign Minister Kasit - your tirades will be missed...!

Just because we will have a new government, it doesn't mean they all suddenly stop saying stupid things. If you come across any verbosities that you think might fit in here send us an email at siamvoices [at] gmail.com or tweet us @siamvoices.

Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist currently based in Bangkok, Thailand. He can be followed on Twitter @Saksith and now also on his public Facebook page here.

Conservative German MPs help Thaksin enter Germany again

Originally published at Siam Voices on July 24, 2011 The Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung (FAZ) newspaper reports that former fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is allowed to enter Germany again. Some excerpts from the newspaper:

Thaksin Shinawatra can enter Germany again. The entry ban against Thaksin, in effect since 2006, has been already revoked on July 15 by the order of Foreign Minister Guido Westerwellse, as this paper understands. The ministerial order has been forwarded to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, which will direct all subsidiary authorities, including the federal police [which also patrols the borders of Germany], to implement the ruling immediately. (...)

The decision by Berlin, which isn't publicly known in Thailand yet, might further put a strain on the relations of both countries. (...)

The reason for the revoking of the entry ban by Germany is the "changed [political] situation in Thailand" according to government circles in Berlin.

"Thaksin darf nach Deutschland", Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung, July 22, 2011 - translation by me, note: Article is behind a paywall

Even though there has been an entry ban for him since 2006, Thaksin was still able to sneak into Germany in late 2008 and even got a residency permit in Bad Godesberg, near the former Western German capital Bonn (which also happened to be the place of residency of the then-ambassador of Thailand) - with help of some very suspicious German friends, including a former spy, a former local police chief, a lawyer and with recommendation letters of conservative German MPs. Both state and federal authorities were unaware about Thaksin's sojourn to Germany, even to the point blaming their own foreign intelligence agency to have helped him. When this incident came to light, the permit was immediately revoked in May 2009. This was the subject of my first ever blog post, where you can read more details about this case.

The question is now why Thaksin's entry ban has really been revoked after all? The Süddeutsche Zeitung has reported in June about increased attempts of German MPs, all apparently members of the Christian-conservative Christlich Soziale Union (the Bavarian sister-party to the nationwide, governing CDU), to convince Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (member of the center-right Freie Demokratische Partei, which is a government coalition partner) to allow Thaksin to enter the country again:

The phantom [Thaksin] also keeps the Foreign Ministry and the Chancellor's Office busy. In the past few months, several conservative politicians have campaigned behind the scenes that Thaksin can travel hassle-free to Germany again. In a comparatively diplomatic way, former Minister of Economics Michael Glos (CSU) has asked Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, if the entry ban for Thaksin still exists.

His colleague on the hand, MP Hans-Peter Uhl (CSU), is already starting to get on many diplomat's nerves with his pro-Thaksin initiatives. Several conservative politicians are campaigning in Berlin for a policy change towards Thailand, in which Thaksin should become a stronger figure again. (...)

"Thailands Ex-Premier Thaksin: Dubioser Besucher", Süddeutsche Zeitung, June 22, 2011, translation by me

The article goes on to hint at possible visits by Thaksin in the very recent past (thanks to his new citizenship of Montenegro and his Nicaraguan diplomatic passport) to meet somebody, who also visits Germany pretty often.

This reported revoking of the entry ban for Thaksin couldn't come at a worse time for Thai-German bilateral relationships, thanks to the impounded Royal Thai Air Force plane-saga (see previous coverage here and here), which by the way is apparently far from over. While most likely the Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya will fume with anger over the reports and insist that the bilateral relations will take a huge hit, more focus has to be put on the conservative German MPs.

Thailand has never prominently popped up on the radar of German foreign policy (if at all) ever since the current administration took over in 2009 (critics say that the Foreign Minister has not much interest in anything) - the more interesting it is to see the MPs pushing for a change. The questions remain though: why do they want a pro-Thaksin policy towards Thailand? What are they hoping to gain from? Were they that influential on the Foreign Ministry? And why are these all conservative MPs of a Bavarian-affiliate governing party?

One has to keep an eye on another prominent Thai's activities, who will come to Germany more often in the very near future.

Exclusive: Pheu Thai should talk policies first - Suranand Vejjajiva

In this two-part interview, Saksith Saiyasombut talks to Suranand Vejjajiva, a former Cabinet Minister under the Thaksin Shinawatra administration who served as the Minister of the PM's Office and spokesman of the Thai Rak Thai Party, until the ban of this party and 111 politicians in 2007. The cousin of the now outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, Suranand is a columnist for the Bangkok Post and host of "The Commentator" on VoiceTV.

In part one we talk about Pheu Thai's election victory and the work ahead of them, including the economy and reconciliation process and where it went wrong for the Democrat Party. In part two, we'll look ahead at the fate of the new government, the red shirts, the Democrat Party and Thaksin Shinawatra and also at the state of education and the media in Thailand.

We had Election Day on Sunday, July 3 - then on Monday, July 4, we already have a coalition or at least an agreement to form a coalition. What this to be expected to happen so quickly?

I‘m not in the inner circle, but what I was thinking is that - since PT has 265 seats - they don‘t have a wide enough margin. They expect that some elected MPs could get disqualified [by the Election Commission], so they have already talked to smaller parties to get the margin up to 299 seats to be safe. (Note: it‘s 300 now, ed.)

Do you think this coalition is stable enough?

In terms of numbers yes, definitely. The coalition partners don‘t have any leverage to change anything much because PT already has enough seats. If PT would have fewer seats, let‘s say 220, and a coalition partner with 20 seats would come in, then they would have more leverage, then the coalition would be unstable. But number-wise, this coalition is stable.

We have now the usual claims on the ministries, but as you just said, the coalition partners don‘t have any leverage - still, I cannot imagine that they want to go out empty handed...

Oh, they will get their ministries! My first observation was along this line, too. But it‘s too early to talk about cabinet positions - the Election Commission has not even certified the MPs yet, there‘s still a lot of time. I think Pheu Thai is being pushed by the media...

...practically hyped up...

...yeah, hyped up - to talk about cabinet positions, because that‘s what the media is interested in. But I don‘t think Pheu Thai should fall for that. For example when I saw in the news today, when Khun Yingluck came out and talked about policies - that‘s what parties should talk about right now.

So what are the policies they should look at first?

It will be two-prong. The first one is reconciliation, it‘s a policy-cum-mechanism that they have to implement. They cannot say by themselves that they will do this and that, since they are a part of the conflict as well. So what Khun Yingluck is trying to propose, a neutral committee while keeping the Truth and Reconciliation Committee of Dr. Kanit, is good in a way...

Even though Dr. Kanit's panel has hardly found anything...

It‘s because the now-outgoing administration didn‘t give them anything. It‘s a paper tiger, they don‘t even get the budget they needed - let alone access to all the evidence. So if Yingluck comes in as the prime minister and opens up everything to Kanit‘s committee - that‘s one thing she has to make sure that happens.

The other thing of course is the economic situation. Not all people care for reconciliation, but a lot of them care what is going to be in their wallets and in their stomachs.

And are Pheu Thai‘s policies a real way out? For example, one of the first things they have planned is to raise the minimum wage to 300 Baht...

It's hard to say. I have criticized nearly every party's policies, I don‘t believe in these so-called 'populist platforms'. Yes, Thailand still has gaps and loopholes concerning wages or the welfare system. But to give handouts from the first day will be a strain on the fiscal discipline for the government. What they should have done though, while I agree with the wage raise, is to explain what kind of structural adjustments they would do for the economy. When investors and business people see that for example the minimum wage increase is part of a larger restructuring, they might be more confident over the economy.

Let‘s take a look back for a moment. You said that you have criticized almost every party‘s policies - what made Pheu Thai stand out from anybody else?

Pheu Thai and its previous incarnations (People‘s Power Party and Thai Rak Thai) have a track record - if you look at their economic team, all former cabinet ministers - that is for me and probably for many people enough for us now to have confidence in them.

Where did it go wrong for the Democrat Party then?

On reconciliation - they were not sincere enough about it, they haven‘t provided an official explanation on what happened last year yet, we only got political rhetoric so far. And no cases have gone into the judicial process yet.

What about the economic side?

They have not been able to deal with the rising cost of living. Of course, they would say the export figures are excellent, but they are excellent because we are a food producing country. But the prices on (palm) oil, nearly all prices went up. They haven‘t been able to manage the domestic side, not even the 'trickling down' of these benefits towards the urban population but also to the farmers. I think that‘s why they lost the vote.

Then there was the last-ditch attempt to hold a rally at Rajaprasong, which didn‘t really help them in the end...

Well, I‘m trying to figure out the Bangkok vote, which consists of two factors: first, the Democrats control the election mechanics in Bangkok for a very long time, so they‘re better organized than Pheu Thai in Bangkok. Secondly, Abhisit was continuing to bet on the politics of fear - the fear of Thaksin, the fear of the red shirts. Abhisit was targeting the Bangkok electorate, especially the middle-class.

We have now talked about the reconciliation and economic policies of the Pheu Thai Party. What else should be on top of their list?

Foreign policy. Especially with the neighboring countries, because I think we cannot live among ourselves. The outgoing government has created very bad relations with our neighbors and that doesn‘t help because ASEAN 2015 (the planned establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community, ed.) is coming very soon. If you really want to be a real borderless ASEAN, it has to be proven on the mainland and if Thailand doesn‘t have good relations with its neighbors, it will be problematic. The border situation with Cambodia was mishandled very badly from a diplomatic standpoint - it could have resolved bi-laterally long time ago. If there were good relations, we wouldn‘t have any incidents, not even at the UN Security Council or to the International Court of Justice or the World Heritage Committee. That is embarrassing.

Part of the much-discussed reconciliation policy of Pheu Thai has been a potential amnesty plan - if there has been ever one. Is it a smart move to give everybody, convicted of political wrongdoings, amnesty? Is this how a proper reconciliation looks like?

I don‘t agree at all with that. I don‘t see that an amnesty will help anyone. You can forgive, but only after a certain process. I‘m a banned politician for only eight more months and I have never called for an amnesty. But if you absolve all these cases, including Thaksin, the terrorist accusations against red and yellow shirts, the military coup, the defamation cases - you cannot give an amnesty that way, because there are a lot of other people in jail who will call for their own amnesty as well! The best way for reconciliation is not an amnesty, but to make sure that the judicial process is fair and transparent in order to provide real justice.

But does it like it at the moment or does the judicial system need changes?

Once you say you have to reform the whole judicial process, then that‘s a big problem. For example, the government has to find a credible and socially accepted Minister of Justice first...

Now who would that be?

I don‘t know! But it‘s important this person is independent. This government has to set an example, especially for the cases that involve the red shirts and Thaksin. I don‘t think Thaksin wants an amnesty, since he himself said he didn‘t do anything wrong. But if he‘s sure that the judicial process is fair and transparent, he might be able to come back and fight his case.

Round-up of day one after Thailand's elections

Originally published at Siam Voices on July 4, 2011 Just in case you haven't been following our live-blog yesterday, the opposition Pheu Thai Party (PT) have won the majority of the votes paving the way for Yingluck Shinawatra to become Thailand's first female prime minister. Bangkok Pundit has his take about the morning after, which I initially wanted to write about as well. But over the course of Monday after elections, things moved very quickly:

First off, outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has resigned from his position as leader of the Democrat Party and seeks no re-election even if the party members want him to. He's taking responsibility from the big election defeat and makes room for a new party leader, that could be either outgoing finance minister Korn Chatikavanij or former Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayodhin.

Then over noon, Yingluck has met with several representatives of other parties over lunch for coalition talks, just already to announce a five-party governing coalition after it, with Chat Thai Pattana (as of now, unofficially 19 seats), Chat Pattana Phua Pandin (7), Palang Chon (7) and Mahachon (1), together with Pheu Thai's 265 forming a comfortable majority of 299 seats of the total 500 in the parliament. Why 299 you might ask? "299 is a beautiful number," is what Yingluck said...

Of course, all eyes are also looking at the military whether they will accept the outcome of the elections or if they will intervene, fearing a return of Thaksin. So far, they seem to stay put - outgoing defense minister General Prawit Wongsuwon told AFP he accepts the results and, after having talked with military leaders, will not get involved. Speaking of, the normally very outspoken commander-in-chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has essentially given himself a gag order until a new government has been formed. Also,

In the meantime, there're still a lot of questions left from Sunday's election, like...

Why did the exit polls get it so horribly wrong? Right after the polls closed at 3pm, the exit polls predicted a huge landslide win for Pheu Thai with about 270 to well above 300 seats. But in the late afternoon and evening these number have proven to be greatly exaggerated - the margins of error where somewhere from 13.8 per cent to a whopping 22.8 per cent. Nevertheless, many people (including this author) got very excited in the heat of the moment and already were calling it based on these numbers. We should have known better that all these Thai polls have a notorious track record of being very wrong - so we all got eggs on out faces, but the pollsters have now some explaining to do:

Turakij Bandit Poll director blamed uncontrollable factors for the high error margins. He said that although the sampling process followed standard procedures, pollsters could not get enough Democrat Party supporters to take part in the exit polls, whereas Pheu Thai supporters such as red shirts who are politically active were more willing to speak their minds. Dusit Poll director Sukhum Chaloeisub agreed, saying most Democrat supporters were not accessible, while Pheu Thai backers were more politically expressive.

"Exit polls blasted for huge margins of error", The Nation, July 4, 2011

What's the voter turnout? Again, prediction and reality have proven to be two different things, even though not to such a large extend concerning the voter turnout. Many pundits have projected that at least 75 per cent of the electorate will go to the polls, while the Election Commission has now announced that it could be 66 per cent, which is of course much lower than expected. Throughout Sunday, voters were urged to cast their ballots sooner or later since in many parts of the country bad weather was fore-casted, but we'll have to wait for the official results, which brings us to...

When will we know the full unofficial results? It was announced to be published on Monday noon, but it has been postponed to Tuesday, because the results from a few districts in Mae Hong Son and Ranong province are not yet in, since these are reportedly cut off due to bad weather. Let the conspiracy theories begin...!

There are still many questions yet to be answered and many new questions will arise over the next few days, e.g. who will get which cabinet post? What will the new opposition do? Who got a seat in the House and who didn't? And were there less frauds in this elections? The next days will still be interesting!

Thailand's Democrat Party rally: Reclaiming (the truth about) Rajaprasong

Originally published at Siam Voices on June 24, 2011 The big screens flanking the stage on the left and the right are bearing a gruesome view. Footage of at times badly injured people from last year's rally are being shown when suddenly at the sight of blood people started cheering - as it turns out, not for the brutally killed victims of the anti-governments protests of 2010, but for a woman with an Abhisit cut-out mask waving to the crowd behind her.

Thursday's rally of the governing Democrat Party rings in the final days of a fiercely contested election campaign and the chosen venue was not a coincidence: Rajaprasong Intersection, where a little bit more than a year ago the red shirts held their rally for the better part of their nine and a half-week-campaign to force the government of prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva out, only to be dispersed in a chaotic crackdown by the military on May 19. 87 people lost their lives, more than 2,000 were injured and, for some a symbol of the 'red chaos', Central World, one of Asia's biggest shopping malls, burned down. The red shirts have returned a few times since then to remind people what happened.

Now the government has chosen this (almost) very same spot to show their version on the events of May 19, 2010. Unsurprisingly, the announcement to a rally at that place has been widely regarded as a deliberate provocation to the red shirts, who view this intersection as a symbol of state brutality and political oppression. The more anxious were the expectations on what or if they would do anything to disrupt the event in any way. Despite the Pheu Thai Party discouraging its supporters to stage a counter-protest, some smaller groups had hinted at convening at the site in some form. But during the whole evening, there have been no such incidents reported (though I heard there has been a cursing ritual at the nearby Erawan Shrine the day before).

Contrary to concerns that streets have to be closed off for yet another political rally, the Democrats have chosen the large plaza in front of the Central World. Since this is a private property, the approval of the owners was a privilege the red shirts didn't have and most unlikely will ever get. The stage, primarily in blue and with a big Thai flag as a background, was positioned in front of the burned down section of the mega-mall that is being rebuilt - another symbolism of the evening.

Supporters started to flock in hours before the event started with a jubilant mood, while many placards and signs are being handed out, many of them showing '10', the number on the ballot paper where the Democrat Party is listed. Several politicians and government ministers were warming up the estimated 5,000-strong crowd, while the same two Party's pop songs were blaring from the loudspeakers. Even two heavy rain showers were not enough to dampen the mood of the mostly older attendees.

The rally kicked off at 6pm with the National Anthem, when deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban shortly thereafter begun his speech, which he has previously touted as the definite 'truth' about the crackdown. Suthep went straight ahead to his account, citing many pieces of evidence and lines of arguments that have been previously presented in some shape and form before. Suthep, broadly speaking*, argues that armed militia groups, dressed in black have caused casualties on both sides. But, according to him, no one has been killed directly at Rajaprasong, pointing that the other casualties have happened at places near the rally site. Additionally, the deputy prime minister hints that the late rogue Maj Gen Kattiya Sawasdipol aka "Seh Daeng" has been killed because of an internal argument over the leadership of the red shirts movement.

Of course, he could not resist taking a jab at the opposition, referencing their PM candidate Yingluck Shinawatra statement that she could not control the red shirts from heckling. Suthep understood her sentiment, only to add that the red shirts have 'hijacked' the Pheu Thai Party. "22 convicted criminals are on the ballot paper," mentioning the red shirt leaders running for office, "the worst case would be [jailed red shirt leader] Jatuporn Phromphan becoming a security minister - I'd better start hiding."

The next two speeches were held by former prime minister Chuan Leekpai and the party's campaign strategist Korbsak Sabhavasu, who (like all speakers) were interrupted with loud, approving cheers whenever a swipe at the red shirt leaders or Pheu Thai executives was made. Especially when Korbsak read some of the names on Pheu Thai's ballot, each name was replied with a disapproving, at times disgusted roar, to which he added: "You cannot have any reconciliation with these people!"

The long evening reached it's climax at 9pm, when a long video clip was played. This video montage, set to "O Fortuna", showed several quotes by red shirts leaders and Thaksin (including the infamous "We'll burn down the country"speech by Nattawut), accompanied by scenes of destruction, all allegedly done by red shirts, evoking some kind of Thai apocalypse. It was followed by another clip, which actually is the "We're sorry, Thailand"-ad from last year, which has created some controversy. But instead of showing the original slogan of the clip ("Seeding positive energy, changing Thailand [for the better]"), a portrait of Abhisit was shown.

The prime minister immediately took the stage, welcomed by load cheers. "We're here not to put more oil into the flame," said Abhisit, "but to show that this place is like any other place in the country, a place for all Thais." Before he continued, he asked from for a minute of silence for all victims. "The truth must be told", he continued and recounted the events of recent years ever since he took office, including the 2009 and 2010 protests, from his point of view. "People are saying I do not show much emotion," Abhisit said, "but on the night of April 10, I cried!"

The prime minister went on attack on Thaksin and the opposition in the closing moments of his speech:

"Why does their big boss hinder reconciliation? I don't understand! His followers are living a difficult life! (...) Like in the past, Thaksin thinks, the red shirt leaders act. This time it is the Pheu Thai Party that acts!"

"Society needs to help those who are legitimately angry and punish those who use them to incite violence!"

"If you don't vote at all or for us, fearing that the reds will come out again, then you'll be a hostage of those who incite fear! (...) If you want the country get rid of the poison that is Thaksin, then you should vote for us and vote for us to get more than 250 seats!"

The rally is an attempt by the government to (symbolically) reclaim Rajaprasong not only as a public space, but also to reclaim the sovereignty of interpretation over what has happened during the crackdown. The gloves are clearly off and the Democrats did not leave out a single opportunity to blame Thaksin for the 'mob'. The governing party is, if the polls are anything to go by, losing ground even in Bangkok. So in a sense this is also a reclaiming of the capital as their home battleground. Abhisit and his Democrat Party, having previously claimed to move on, are apparently not quite done yet with the past.

*Author's note: This article is aimed at re-telling the atmosphere of the event, rather than disseminating the 'facts' presented by the speakers bit by bit. This may or may not be addressed in another post.

Tongue-Thai’ed! Part III: O brother, where art thou?

Originally published at Siam Voices on May 17, 2011 "Tongue-Thai'ed!" is the new segment on Siam Voices, where we encapsulate the most baffling, amusing, confusing, outrageous and appalling quotes from Thai politicians and other public figures - in short: everything we hear that makes us go "Huh?!". Check out all past entries here.

The election campaign has now really begun this week with the opposition Puea Thai Party finally putting Yingluck Shinawatra forward as PM candidate. Of course, we all know that she is the younger sister of one Thaksin and that this fact alone will certainly irk many voters.

More unsurprising is what Thaksin said during an exclusive interview with Post Today:

“ผมบอกเลยว่าไม่ใช่นอมินี แต่เรียกได้เลยว่าเป็นโคลนนิงของทักษิณเลย ผมโคลนนิงการบริหารให้ตั้งแต่เรียนจบใหม่ๆ สไตล์การทำงานเหมือนผม รับการบริหารจากผมได้ดีที่สุด อีกข้อสำคัญหนึ่งก็คือ การที่คุณยิ่งลักษณ์ซึ่งเป็นน้องสาวผม มานั่งเก้าอี้หัวหน้าพรรค สถานะนั้นสามารถตัดสินใจแทนผมได้เลย เยส ออ โน นี่พูดแทนผมได้เลย”

"I say straightaway that [Yingluck] is not a nominee, but you can say that she is a clone of Thaksin. I have cloned my [way of] leadership [to her] ever since graduation. [Her] style of work is the same as mine. [She] got all my best administration [skills]. Another important point is, since Yingluck is my younger sister and she is head of the party, she can decide for me. 'Yes or no,' she can do that for me."

"ทักษิณบอกยิ่งลักษณ์คือโคลนนิงของผม", Post Today, May 17, 2011 (translation by me)

Clearly, the opponents (both lawmakers and the press) will bite on this bait and point out that this alone is enough not to vote her (as our favorite Suthep already did). But it would a mistake to rail just on that, because having a Shinawatra running for office is exactly why the Puea Thai Party is poised to gain many votes. Attacking her just for being a Thaksin proxy (or worse, digging up her private life) might prove ineffective.

People who hate Thaksin won't vote for Puea Thai anyway and voters who still think highly of him will give their vote to his sister - there's nothing to change about that. What's crucial now is whether she can win over the undecided voters. We'll have to wait for the campaign trail to see if Yingluck can stand on her own. She still has enough opportunities to prove herself as a politician and not only as Thaksin's sister.

(You might ask why this is still filed under "Tongue-Thai'ed" - well, it's the well-known bluntness and bravado of Thaksin's quote that in my view still deserves a spot here. And I can't just put up yet another Suthep quote!)

A lot of stupid things will be said during the election campaign in the coming months. If you come across any verbosities that you think might fit in here send us a email at siamvoices [at] gmail.com or tweet us @siamvoices.

Exiled Thaksin takes center stage at Puea Thai Party campaign launch

Originally published at Siam Voices on April 27, 2011 Last weekend the opposition Puea Thai Party launched its campaign for the anticipated election later this summer (despite the chances that there might be none after all) and unveiled its promises policies at the Rangsit Campus of Thammasat University north of Bangkok (which might be surprising in itself). If you were looking for a bold, fresh new start for Thailand's opposition and paradigm change in Thai politics, you'll be disappointed! Because last Saturday one man stood above all despite the lack of his physical presence.

The exiled Thaksin Shinawatra took center stage and phoned-in during the event, as he did regularly at recent red shirt protests and executive party meetings, to list all the things he'll do if the Puea Thai Party wins the election.

Thaksin later promised to increase the village fund by Bt1 million per village if the opposition Pheu Thai, of which he is the de-facto leader, wins. ... Thaksin then vowed that the party, if elected, would solve the flood problem in Bangkok for good by building a mega-dyke some 30 kilometres in length as in the Netherlands.

Thaksin also vowed to reclaim some 300 square kilometres of land from the sea around Samut Prakan and Samut Songkram provinces and build a new city with an excellent environment and rail link to Bangkok and acting as an IT and financial hub.

The former premier also promised:

- Ten new electric rail lines would be introduced in Bangkok with a fixed fee of Bt20 per ride

- New flats and houses would be built to allow students and poor people to rent at Bt1,000 per month.

- Construct a land bridge linking the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea.

- Eliminate the drugs problem within 12 months and eradicate poverty within four years.

- Debt moratorium to those owing between Bt500,000 to Bt1 million for three to five years.

- Minimum corporate income tax would be reduced from 30 percent to 23 percent within the next year.

- Fresh university graduates would be guaranteed a minimum monthly salary of Bt15,000 and the minimum wage will be set at Bt300 per day.

"Thaksin woos voters with promises, ready to return and 'serve the people'", The Nation, April 24, 2011

These were just some of the dozens of overambitious campaign promises (anybody recalls his infamous promise in 1995 to solve Bangkok's traffic problems "within six months"?). Many of his new policies are more or less a continuation of his policies during his tenure as prime minister from 2001 until 2006, aimed at the poor and rural population. As mentioned before, those who expected a big progressive change, are left to look elsewhere than the Puea Thai Party. Thus unsurprisingly, it didn't took long until the first critical voices weighed in (apart from the usually shrill "Thaksin is the devil"-trolling):

As good as those might seem in theory at least to some people, coming from Mr. Thaksin the ideas are gimmicky, dilettantish and often cynical. His late conversion to the cause of political freedom fools no one, and his thoughts about fiscal policy are rooted in a superficial understanding of Thailand's competitiveness problem.

As is typical of Mr. Thaksin, then, these proposals fail to amount to a coherent program of government or a formula for addressing Thailand's most fundamental problems of social division, inadequate human capital, and diminishing confidence in leading institutions.

"Thailand Caught on the Thaksin Rebound", by Michael Montesao, Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2011

Exiled Thai academic Giles Ji Ungpakorn also did not have many nice words to say about Thaksin:

The recent speech by Taksin [sic!] was designed to outline policies for Peua Thai Party for the upcoming election. However, there were great weaknesses in this speech. (...)

What Taksin did not talk about was HOW to dismantle the web of dictatorship which has throttled Democracy. He also ignored the Red Shirts who are the only real force which can challenge this dictatorship outside parliament. This is not surprising, since Taksin had no role in creating the Red Shirt movement.

Taksin talked too much about himself, but worse still, he kept insisting that he was a loyal subject of the Monarchy. (...) Taksin refused to campaign for the scrapping of Lèse Majesté.

On issues that really lie in the hearts of most Red Shirts: (...) the need to release all political prisoners and drop charges, Taksin was silent. This was a huge mistake on his part. (...)

On the drugs war, Taksin showed that he has learnt nothing, repeating the need for the failed and violent tactics of the past. On the South he did make some concessions that he had made mistakes (...).

At best, Taksin’s speech was a utopian wish list. It showed the weakness of his party that he had to make the policy speech. The Red Shirt movement must continue to develop its political understanding and campaigning which goes beyond Taksin and Peua Thai. We may have to grit our teeth and vote for Peua Thai, but the struggle will have to continue, whether or not the conservatives and the Military manage to fix the elections.

"Ji on Thaksin’s election promises", via Thai Political Prisoners, April 25, 2011

It is indeed the weakness of the party, but one that is intended - if one proposed slogan "Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts" is anything to go by, then it is apparent that Thaksin was never gone and is calling the shots. With still no party leader and PM candidate picked (although most likely Thaksin will choose his politically inexperienced sister Yingluck to run), it rarely made any attempts to move beyond their former prime minister.

Also, the red shirts' continued repression (as seen lately with the crackdown on community radio stations) was blatantly left unacknowledged, his hint to continue the brutal 'war on drugs' (which the current government has resurrected), the lack of support for unions' rights and other social gifts to the people indicate that Thaksin is not interested in a long-lasting, political change that ironically he set off (somewhat unintentionally) by actually doing something for the rural electorate and empower them with at least a political consciousness.

Having said that, it is evident that the Puea Thai Party, despite it's figurehead and his tainted record, is still the lesser evil at the ballot box with no other viable political alternative present at the moment. A vote for the Democrat Party is a vote for the military-dominated status quo, a vote for the opposition is the potential return of social gifts but also a polarizing figurehead - but then again, you could also give up on democracy and not vote at all, as the yellow shirts have decided recently.

Thailand’s opposition searches for a leader

Originally published at Siam Voices on March 23, 2011 With a potential snap election looming in the not-so-distant future all political parties are preparing for a very short, but certainly intense, campaign. For the opposition Puea Thai party (PT) this means finding a new leader and a promising PM candidate. But not much has changed since last year when then-leader Yongyuth Wichaidit was bizarrely re-elected just days after he resigned (see my and Bangkok Pundit's previous posts here and here, respectively). In fact, more contenders have entered the scene.

Last week's censure debate was a good opportunity for Puea Thai not only to attack the government on their countless wrongdoings and thus present them in a bad light, but also for some MPs to audition as the next leader of the party or even of the country. The opposition agreed for Mingkwan Saengsuwan to lead the parliamentary grilling. The former Toyota executive and former Commerce Minister is described as soft-spoken but also largely unknown to the public. And while the mud-slinging was left to others, Mingkwan tried to portray himself as the next PM. Bangkok Post's columnist Suranand Vejjajiva wrote about his performance:

So far Mr Mingkwan has performed better than expected. He was calm and able to control his opening delivery which listed all the allegations of abuse, corruption and mismanagement of the current administration. Although listeners were somewhat distracted by his 119 plates of prepared PowerPoint display, this performance surpassed his previous speeches. If he can tie up the loose ends and make a convincing closing statement tonight, his path towards leading Puea Thai would become clearer.

"Win-lose-draw in the censure debate", by Suranand Vejjajiva, Bangkok Post, March 18, 2011

That also applies to the rest of the sessions, going so far as to announce in his closing speech that he'd be the party's candidate to contest against Abhisit in the next election (btw, the government unsurprisingly survived the no-confidence vote). Nevertheless, or maybe because of that, Mingkwan was criticized for his performance by his own party:

Pheu Thai Party MPs will take their party list MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan to task for "overpresenting" himself as the PM candidate of Pheu Thai during last week's censure motion, a source said yesterday. (...)

Some party MPs are disappointed with Mingkwan's performance in grilling the government saying he spent too much time on the floor wooing voters instead of launching a stinging attack, causing a party setback, the source said.

"Pheu Thai MPs critical of party's censure performance", The Nation, March 21, 2011

And worse, during a general meeting on Tuesday, where a new party leader should have been nominated, Mingkwan was left hung out to dry because the party members couldn't decide on a new front-runner. Part of the plan was to make him the new head of PT and to introduce his restructuring plan for the party. But the plan was thwarted by none other than...

However, Thaksin, who is the party's de facto leader, passed a message to the meeting blocking the group's plan saying it was not the right time to make a choice. The party could continue its activities under its current structure which would not cause it any harm.

Earlier, there had been speculation that Thaksin would choose between Mr Mingkwan and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, considered an outsider to be the party's candidate for premier.

"Thaksin leaves Mingkwan dangling", Bangkok Post, March 23, 2011

The role of Thaksin in the Puea Thai Party should not be underestimated*. The party is still very much loyal to him and the fact that members are still meeting and consulting him for key decisions indicates that Thaksin is still calling the shots in the re-re-incarnation of his former Thai Rak Thai party. Since late last year, it was reported that he wants to 'install' his own sister Yingluck as the new party leader.

Yingluck Shinawatra is the youngest sibling of Thaksin and an experienced business executive, having served at the family-owned AIS communications and now working at SC Asset, a property firm with the Shinawatra family as the largest major shareholder (conflict of interest, anyone?). Although she is not a party executive or even a member and has virtually no political experience, she claims to have attended several party executive meetings. Despite showing no clear sign of any political ambitions and even just recently ruling out a potential candidacy, Yingluck is still being brokered as the top contender at PT. She is also blessed by the support of somebody, who was just recently considered a front-runner as well.

Those backing her include Puea Thai chairman of MPs Chalerm Yubamrung, who has been disgruntled by Mr Mingkwan's attempt to take the party's helm. The veteran politician has threatened to quit the party if Mr Mingkwan is successful.

"Yingluck rules out taking Puea Thai helm", Bangkok Post, March 28, 2011

Chalerm, a seasoned politician for over 25 years, has made no qualms in the past about his contempt towards Mingkwan. Already earlier this year he threatened to leave the party should Mingkwan lead the censure debates and on Wednesday, as a consequence of being snubbed...

Veteran politician Chalerm Yubamrung has resigned as a party-list MP, but remains a member of the Puea Thai Party, Si Sa Ket MP Thanes Kruerat said on Wednesday. (...)

Asked about a report that Mr Chalerm felt belittled when asked by Chaturon Chaisaeng, a former executive of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party and an adviser to Puea Thai's censure debate team, to cut short his debate speech in the House of Representatives, to allow Mingkwan Saengsuwan more time to deliver his conclusion, Mr Thanes admitted that this might also be a reason.

"Miffed Chalerm resigns MP seat", Bangkok Post, March 23, 2011

So that pretty much leaves us with Yingluck and Mingkwan. If Mingkwan becomes the front-runner, it means for the party a step away from Thaksin, since the party restructuring may or may not be a means to lessen the influence of the exiled former prime minister. If Yingluck becomes the party's new leader, it's underlining Thaksin's influence in the Puea Thai Party and strengthening his position as the de-facto leader who pulls the strings even from outside the country. The party has announced that it will reveal its PM candidate after the parliament has dissolved, which should in the coming months. Until then, they will have to assess their options and ultimately decide which way they will go into the next elections.

*I should stress that no one should fall for the over-simplified "Red Shirts = Puea Thai Party = Thaksin" fallacy that many of their enemies would like us to think. Though there are overlapping intersections between these three areas (e.g. red shirt leader Jatuporn is a Puea Thai MP), in my opinion there are (like in any other movement) different visions among the red shirts and part of them want to move beyond Thaksin. But on the other hand, seeing Jatuporn still on stage and Thaksin still phoning-in during the rallies show that the leaders might be one step behind their followers.

Thaksin and the "Bad Exes" Story

Originally published at Siam Voices on October 12, 2010 The Foreign Policy (FP) magazine has published a story under the title "Bad Exes", where author Joshua E. Keating has listed five former heads of state including Gerhard Schröder, José María Aznar and Joseph Estrada on what they have been doing after they left office - most of them are controversial to say the least. Thaksin was also featured in this story:

Since being deposed in a 2006 coup amid allegations of graft and human rights abuses, Thaksin has lived a peripatetic existence. The former billionaire businessman has served as a "special ambassador" for Nicaragua and an economic advisor in Cambodia, and was briefly owner of the Manchester City soccer club. Thaksin reportedly lived under a false name in Germany for more than a year and has used illegally received passports from a number of other countries as well. He now makes his home in Dubai. (...)

"Bad Exes", by Joshua E. Keating, Foreign Policy, October 1, 2010

Keating then goes on to describe his alleged role during the red shirts protests of this year. On Monday Thaksin's lobbyist legal adviser and former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama went to press to slam the article:

Fugitive Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will not sue writer of a US magazine who listed him among "Bad Exes," but instead will write to explain facts, Thaksin's personal spokesman Noppadon Pattama said Monday.

Noppadon also dismissed on behalf of Thaksin (...) that Thaksin used false name and passport to enable him to live in Germany for a year.

"Thaksin is not bad exes : Noppadon [absolutely sic!]", The Nation, October 12, 2010

As I reported back in February, Thaksin indeed was given a German residence permit legally. But under dubious circumstances and even more dubious people accompanying him, he wasn't actually supposed to be allowed in there in the first and when the German authorities found out about this, his visa was cancelled.

Noppadon then went on to say that the American journalist was "apparently misinformed only to discredit Mr Thaksin," an argument that we have heard in different contexts several times already.

Oh, and there's one more thing:

Noppadon said in a press conference, "I dare to challenge anyone to come out to show evidence that Thaksin used the false name and passport. If anyone could, he or she will be rewarded Bt1 million per each evidence."

"Thaksin is not bad exes : Noppadon [friggin' sic!]", The Nation, October 12, 2010

Anyone dares to say: "Challenge accepted"?

ADDENDUM: First off, when the alleged use of a false name was mentioned ("Thaksin reportedly lived under a false name in Germany for more than a year"), the link in the original story apparently leads to another FP story, but instead the page is inaccessible.

Secondly, last year the Thai foreign ministry came up with this claim:

Runaway ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra has used new name in his passports issued by some African countries, Thai Vice foreign minister Panich Vikitsreth said Wednesday. Thaksin's name in passports issued by Nicaragua, Uganda and Montenegro has been changed to "Takki Shinegra" he said.

"Thaksin's new name : Takki Shinegra", The Nation, November 25, 2009

And here's Thaksin's answer to that:

"If the ministry really did say that, then it must have reached the bottom-most level," he said in a Twitter message. He said it would be pointless for a person like him to travel under a different name because he was recognised wherever he goes.

"Thaksin denies being 'Takki Shinegra'", Bangkok Post, November 26, 2009

Whether he ever really used this name or someone in the foreign ministry watched too much Japanese stuff is yet to be seen. What I can say with absolute certainty is:

Takki Shinegrea?! What an utterly stupid name...!

Exclusive: European Red Shirts Rally in Hamburg, Thaksin Phones In

NOTE: The author is NOT affiliated with the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and it's affiliated supporter groups or any other political group of any kind.

Around 120 Thai anti-government protesters from various European countries have gathered on Saturday in the German city of Hamburg to commemorate the forth-year anniversary of the military coup in Thailand and the four-month anniversary of the military crackdown against anti-government protesters in Bangkok.

The participants in this political protest, coming from Germany, France, Denmark and Belgium, are sympathizers of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), also known as "red shirts", a political pressure group demanding the current Thai government to step down and call for new elections, justice for the 91 victims during the anti-government protests earlier this year among other various demands. Many of them are supporters of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been toppled in said coup in 2006.

The atmosphere was largely jubilant, even though short bursts of the typical Northern German rain showers have interrupted the rally for a short period of time. Over amplifiers the protesters have made their stance over the current Thai political situation. Despite some announcements in German, most contributions over the loudspeakers were made in Thai, leaving many Hamburg onlookers asking what this event was all about.

Part of the rally was a phone-in by Thaksin, who thanked all European red shirts for the support and was overall in a conciliatory tone. He said that misunderstanding has to led conflicts and divisions among Thai people. "Today I think all sides should stop looking after themselves and look forward, no matter if they were wrong or not, and move towards each other", he said, "Bring back unity, bring back joy to the Thai people and let's make our country stronger." He continued: "The four months [since the protests' end in May] where people have killed each other, the four years [since the coup] where people made each other's lives difficult - they should come to an end." Thaksin further states that "today should be a day where we think about the mistakes made in the past and we should resolve them."

When asked by the supporters what he thinks about reconciliation he answered: "Reconciliation means to approach each other [...] and help together to move the country forward. No more yellow, no more red! But all things that were done wrong should face justice. [...] Also, there should be elections so that the people can vote their own government." Thaksin also claimed that the current political situation in Thailand "can't sustain itself for much longer." Thaksin's phone-in was cut short after nearly 11 minutes when the power generator ran out of fuel.

[audio http://dl.dropbox.com/u/531991/Thaksin-PhoneIn.mp3]

Listen to the full recording of Thaksin's phone-in here (MP3)

EXCLUSIVE: Did Thaksin Really Meet Nelson Mandela? (UPDATE)

There was some buzz in the Thai media early this week when pictures of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra depicting him shaking hands with former South African president Nelson Mandela and meeting Mandela's ex-wife Winne Mandela.

The pictures were circulated by his lawyer and former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama (who is these days busy acting as his lobbyist). The resurface of Thaksin comes after over a month of silence with no tweets, no phone-in or any other public announcement. This has lead to the repeated speculation over his health or some even guessing to be plotting something.

The authenticity of the pictures are debatable and at this time no high resolution versions were published yet (with the exception of the news outlets), so of course many questioned if the the whole meeting actually took place. For example, the two head honchos at The Nation, Suthichai Yoon and Tulsathit Taptim, were musing over this extensively in their daily video, especially when Suthichai was concluding:

"We don't know why he [Thaksin] met Nelson Mandela. Whether he was invited, whether he asked to see Nelson Mandela and what was the whole purpose behind that - that is the mystery that a whole lot of people will try to solve in the next few days."

Suthichai Yoon, editor-in-chief Nation Group, in "From the newsroom", August 31, 2010

Apparently NOBODY from the Thai media has so far put some effort to solve this mystery. Has anyone actually tried to reach Mandela's office for confirmation or dismiss the visit? Well, I contacted Mandela's office and asked them 1) if there was a meeting between Thaksin and Mandela, 2) if there are any pictures or other documents made by Mandela's staff of the this meeting, 3) what the nature of the meeting was.

Here's what they answered:

Dear Mr Saksith Saiyasombut,

There was no official meeting between Mr Thaksin and Mr Mandela. Mr Thaksin paid Mr Mandela a courtesy call when he was visiting the country.We do not have photographs or documents as no business was discussed and the courtesy call was during Mr Mandela’s private time. The Foundation did not take any photographs.Yes it was a private courtesy call.

Regards,

Sello Hatang, Manager: Information Communications, Nelson Mandela Foundation

So, there we have it. Thaksin has actually met Mandela! Nevertheless the authenticity of the pictures is still unsolved.

P.S.: Dear Thai colleagues, it was not that difficult to contact Mandela's office!

UPDATE:The Canadian Press has some more details on the visit.

Emerging from weeks of silence, fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has appeared in Africa, where he says he is dealing in diamonds and visiting Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nelson Mandela.

A photo of his meeting with the former South African president was released in Thailand by Thaksin's lawyer in an apparent move to quash rumours that the divisive ex-prime minister is ill — and to advertise that he's rubbing shoulders with VIPs abroad.

"I travel all the time. Currently, I'm in Africa for diamond mining," Thaksin told the Thai Rath newspaper in an interview published Thursday. He did not specify if he was still in South Africa. He said rumours of his failing health were "lies."

The Nelson Mandela Foundation in Johannesburg confirmed that the visit took place last Friday [August 27, 2010].

"It was not a meeting, it was a courtesy call," spokesman Sello Hatang said. He said he did not know what they discussed.

"Fugitive former Thai leader visits Africa, meets Nelson Mandela, deals in diamonds", by Jocelyn Gecker, The Canadian Press, September 2, 2010

The said interview with Thai Rath can be read here (in Thai), where also said why he quit as economical adviser to Cambodian PM Hun Sen ("I was annoyed!").

„Der Spiegel“ Interviews Foreign Minister Kasit

NOTE: This post was originally published on July 16, 2010 in a series of guest blogger posts for Bangkok Pundit at AsianCorrespondent. During his diplomatic tour through Europe (previously mentioned here), foreign minister Kasit Piromya gave an interview to the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel. Some lines are familiar to observers of him like these:

SPIEGEL: What is your explanation for the protests?

Kasit: The Marxist-Leninist interpretation was used by some protest leaders to paint a picture of disparity in Thai society -- between the rich and poor, rural and urban areas -- to attract supporters. This notion has also been accepted by the leftist media around the world. (...)

SPIEGEL: How have the leaders succeeded in gaining so much support?

Kasit: The protest is coordinated, organized and financed by Mr. Thaksin and his people. It is not something that happened naturally like in other countries, where demonstrations are spontaneous, like in Greece.

"Interview With Thai Foreign Minister - 'I'm Not Going to Run Like Mr. Thaksin'", Der Spiegel, July 15, 2010

Kasit actually made some solid remarks about the lèse majesté law ("Of course it has been abused! (...) I must now go to court!") and also named "Ethics, and good governance issues" to be the problems of Thai politics, but on the other hand he blames Thaksin in every second answer, whether it's about the failed November 14 election date proposal by the government during the protests ("Mr. Thaksin refused it. And then he started to have this armed insurrection."), the alleged main cause of the red shirts ("to support [him], to bring him back to Thailand without having him serve the jail sentence he has received for corruption and conflict of interest while in office.") - Kasit apparently can not let go of the idea that Thaksin is the ultimate root of all things evil. He also took a jab at German history:

SPIEGEL: What do you think? Who shot the people, if not the army?

Kasit: Look at German history: What happened when Joschka Fischer was on the streets in Frankfurt? Wasn't there shooting at that time? It is also possible that the Red Shirts were shooting among themselves in order to pass the blame to the government.

Former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer was involved in the student movement of the 1960s that was protesting against the conservatism and ignorance towards its past of post-war Germany. The government at that time tried to counter this movement i.e. by using the media to form a public opinion against the students. Due to the over-reaction by the police the protests escalated and turned violent. Even though it initially failed to cause any short-term results, it had long-lasting effects and influence on German society and culture.

In the 1970s the remains of the students movements either disappeared or have taken a radical route that also partly resulted in the formation of the Red Army Fraction that took out several armed assaults and was known as the first domestic terrorist group. During the same time frame Fischer was a leading member of the radical "Putzgruppe" (cleaning squad) that took on the police in several street battles. In 2001, when Fischer just became foreign minster, pictures dating back to 1973 were published, which shows him clubbing a policeman. Fischer later regretted this but also denied claims that he endorsed the use of molotov cocktails against the police. (More in this NYT article)

Getting back to Kasit's original claim: Neither sides, the "Putzgruppe" or the police, have used firearms during the street battles. All in all this historic comparison seems odd to me, but this is not the first time he has shown his selective historical knowledge. Talking about German history, Kasit once more came up with another comparison:

SPIEGEL: There have been 18 military coups since 1932. Can you really call Thailand a democracy?

Kasit: That is a very unfair question. It takes a lot of time to become a full-fledged democratic society. We are struggling with ourselves. Having said that, despite the challenges we have faced, we have never deviated far from the road to democracy which is what the Thai people want. Look at Germany: How did you end up with Hitler?

There we have it, Godwin's law has been used here in full effect! It seems to me that for one reasonable statement and he is spilling at least two or three ill-advised rants that ruin everything, as previously witnessed at an event in the US earlier this year.

By the way, since he mentioned the criminal past of a foreign minister, what about Kasit's past? Oh, yeah right!

Is “Bringing Thaksin Back” Puea Thai's Key Policy?

Bringing back former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to Thailand and reinstatement of the 2007 Constitution would be two main key policies for next election campaign of Puea Thai Party, MPs chairman Chalerm Yubamrung said on Saturday.

Mr Chalerm said the opposition camp will also inform voters that it would move ahead with the populist policy initiated by the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, such as 30 baht for curing all diseases and village fund.

The veteran politician said his party will also come up with a law to grant amnesty to yellow and red-shirt protesters facing criminal and political charges after the September 19, 2006 military coup.

He was confident that Puea Thai party’s MP candidate, Korkaew Pikulthong, would win the July 25 by election in Bangkok’s constituency 6. Mr Korkaew, being detained in prison on charge of terrorism, is a co-leader of the pro-Thaksin United front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

"PT: “Bring Thaksin back” is a key policy", Bangkok Post, July 3, 2010

This will not sit well with the yellow shirts and other anti-Thaksin advocates, but may be the prospect of amnesty for both yellow and red shirts may offer some room for compromise - nah! As long as Thaksin is mentioned there's no chance in hell the Puea Thai Party will get through with this!

Rogue General 'Seh Daeng' Sets His Own Red Agenda

Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol alias 'Seh Daeng' (Picture ©RN/BKLINK.BLOGSPOT)

In the aftermath of the most recent outbreaks of violence last Friday that killed two policemen, prime minister Abhisit has specifically named Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol as "a mastermind against the reconciliation road map" and a "chief terrorist" who "he did not want the protests to end". Additionally, he is threatened to be stripped of his army rank and being dismissed.

Who is he? Maj. Gen. Khattiya, also known as 'Seh Daeng', is one of the notorious hardliners in the red shirt movement but also regarded by many as a folk hero. According to his Wikipedia page, he was involved in undercover operations during the Vietnam war, later in Laos and also in Indonesia. Based on these events, he has written several bestseller novels which explains his broad popularity.

During the 2008 siege of Government House by the yellow shirted PAD, Khattiya was a supporter of the pro-Thaksin governments of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat and led a black-claded militia group to counter the PAD guards. Already back then he showed his eccentric side and revealed to Straits Times reporter Nirmal Ghosh that one of the tactic to defeat the yellow shirts is to "drop snakes on them from helicopters."

During the change of power 'Seh Daeng' has been demoted to an aerobics instructor. Almost a year later, after becoming more involved in the red movement, he was suspended by the defense minister for an unauthorized trip to Cambodia in order to meet Thaksin. There also have been pictures of his visit to Thaksin in Dubai circulating around in Thai web boards and email forwards (also see this meeting of red hardliners with Thaksin in February 2010).

When the suspension was carried out by army chief General Anupong Paochinda in January 2010, his office at the army headquarters was bombed by M79 grenades and Khattiya was the main suspect. No one was hurt during this attack.

During the first week of the red march on Bangkok (man, is it that long ago already?), particularly after the symbolic blood spilling, Khattiya has fallen out with the red shirt leaders, ridiculing them for their lackluster leadership back then. However, 'Seh Daeng' reappeared during the dumb-ass ill-advised Chula Hospital fiasco and he gave the order to rebuild the barricade in front of the hospital, much to the displeasure of the red shirt leaders.  Also, as pointed out in a recent profile on him in the Asia Times, he claims that so called 'Ronin warriors' have been fighting during the April 10 clashes and also killed soldiers, but at the same time denies any involvement.

As mentioned above, he had officially cut ties with the current red leaders and has called for the hardliners Arisaman Pongruengrong, Suporn Atthawong and Kwanchai Praiphana to take the helm. Last Monday he claimed to have received direct orders from Thaksin that the red leaders have been replaced by these aforementioned men - a claim that was quickly denied, saying that even Thaksin can not change the leaders. Some might question the public split between the red leaders and 'Seh Daeng', mirroring a Thai saying "แยกกันเดิน รวมกันตี" (walking different routes, striking together). But his announcement of the change of the red leaders can hardly been an unintentional mistake on 'Seh Daeng's' part, since he claimed his favorite candidates of some months before were supposed to be the new ones in charge.

He is now the unpredictable element of the red movement, since he pretty much has his own agenda to keep the protests going and is not afraid to turn onto his allies. And even if he denies any involvement in any of the violent clashes or any of the few dozens grenade attacks, with his defiant and aggressive stance he remains a controversial figure to say the least. His intentions are clear: to topple the current government and get redemption for his fall from grace two years ago. The fact that Khattiya is still running around the red zone and apparently is still able to command a group of loyal people shows that no one, neither the government, the army or the red leaders themselves would get rid of him easily. The question is: what makes him untouchable?

Further reading:

• Nirmal Ghosh (The Straits Times): Nobody messes with Seh Daeng (a profile from 2008)
• France 24: The Red Shirt revolutionary spirit (w/ video)
• Wall Street Journal: Video: Seh Daeng's Fortified Protest Area
• Asia Times: On guard at Bangkok's frontlines
• Bangkok Post: 'Guilty' Seh Daeng faces dismissal, stripping of rank (how the army wants to throw him out)

"Stupid Foreigners...!"

The Nation has put up an article that can only be described as simply astonishing.

The international community is showing varying degrees of understanding concerning the political situation in Thailand. There are two groups - those who reside outside the Kingdom and are looking in through a somewhat distorted lens, and the Bangkok-based foreign community, who have to suffer through this turmoil on a daily basis like the Thai people.

The first group, including some media outlets, has only a superficial comprehension of the crisis. Comments are mostly narrowly focused; they see the turmoil simply as a righteous struggle between the haves and have-nots. Moreover, they see it solely as a cry for democracy. These two key messages dominate their discourses. (...)

But one thing is missing here. The role of fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as the main culprit is seldom being mentioned by the international community and international media. Obviously, it is beyond their imagination to conceive that one person could be responsible for such massive civil disobedience. But this is exactly the point. Thaksin has channelled his money, via his divorced wife and crony associates, to finance the demonstration. (...)

Certainly, there are red supporters on the streets who are genuinely crying for a real democracy and who want to highlight and remedy all the social ills of Thailand. (...) There is no denying that extensive reforms are needed.

But these issues are symptomatic of all developing countries. The disparity between rural and urban areas - even in the most developed countries in the world - is a dichotomy that we continue to struggle with. What is strange is that nobody reacts like this in other countries. In Thailand this issue has been manipulated by certain people for their own interests.

Inside Thailand, for those foreigners who have gone through the same experience as Thais in the past several weeks, there has been a strong sense of anger, sadness and bitterness. They feel the same way as many Thais. (...)

It is imperative that the international community gains a thorough understanding of the situation. Both the media and all governmental organisations have to do their job more effectively.

"Do They Really Know What's Happening Here?", The Nation, April 30, 2010

In a related news story, foreign minister Kasit Piromya is at it again.

The crisis spilled into the diplomatic arena Thursday, with Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya censuring some foreign diplomats for meeting last week with Red Shirt leaders.

"We do not want to see that happening again," Kasit told reporters during a visit to Jakarta, Indonesia. Kasit said he had earlier met with Philippine Ambassador Antonio V. Rodriguez, dean of the Bangkok diplomatic corps, to express his concern.

In a note to other diplomats based in Thailand, Rodriguez said Kasit accused some ambassadors of voicing opposition to the constitutional monarchy and criticizing the government's handling of the crisis. Kasit was a public supporter of the Yellow Shirt movement before becoming foreign minister.

"These actions have gone beyond the limits of diplomatic practice and were unacceptable to the Thai government," Rodriguez summarized Kasit as saying. "The envoys' opposition to the government and to the monarchy was inappropriate and will not be tolerated."

"Thai protest rivals want military to end 'anarchy'", Associated Press, April 29, 2010

New Mandala has some excerpts of the memo that has been passed to the diplomats, worth a read.

Do I sense a theme here? It seems that the "being a foreigner and not in Thailand"-talk is still a legit argument for some Thais and also a convenient one to shoot down foreign criticism. Also, there is an ongoing fascinating fixation on Thaksin by Kasit and The Nation, especially since rumors of his death are persistently popping up this week again.

And don't get me started on who should do a better job...

P.S.: Remember Kasit's rant in Washington against several countries that have let Thaksin from a few weeks ago? Well, one of the countries 'strikes' back.

In a separate development, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Thai Ambassador Chalermpol Thanchitt to accept a diplomatic protest in response to Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya's remarks on Russia's role in sheltering Thaksin.

"Thaksin, family dispel rumours of death, coma", The Nation, May 1, 2010

Shameless Self-Plug: Al Jazeera's Listening Post on Media Coverage of Thai Protests

This is not going to help ending my continuous praise for Al Jazeera English's regular and good coverage on Thailand and the current protests in particular. The channel's media magazine Listening Post examines the media's role in the anti-government protests and how both sides are battling each other on the airwaves and online. Also, yours truly makes an appearance on the Global Village Voices segment where I give my opinion about the media coverage of the protests, beginning at the 8:15 minute mark - followed by Chiranuch Premchaiporn, webmaster of the embattled news site Prachatai.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIqkTX_FKDU&playnext_from=TL&videos=WLUBzJqT_jI&w=600&h=360]

:)

Further Reading:

• Christian Science Monitor: Biased TV stations intensify divides in Thailand protests

Gloves Are Off Once Again As Police Failed to Arrest Red Shirt Leader, Military Takes Over Operation

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV7PrHi_oMU&w=600&h=360]Video by Asian Correspondent via YouTube After a few days of pause during the Songkran holidays, the gloves are off again between the red shirts and the security forces.

We used to the Thai police for being not the most effective force in the world and today's 'skillful' display of 'determination' would have been even better executed by Carey Mahoney's squad.

The Nation thankfully already has written about the Schadenfreude inducing events of today.

Arisman Pongruangrong and other red-shirt leaders on a wanted list could not be apprehended when they were in full public view in the middle of the city, so what convinced Thai police that they could catch them by storming a hotel that once belonged to Thaksin Shinawatra? (...)

Not to mention that two senior officers were taken by the red mob from the hotel to the Rajprasong rally site to "guarantee" the escapees' safe return. How come what was supposed to be a pre-dawn sting operation ended with Arisman staging the escape just before 10am and mobs accompanying all the police targets back to Rajprasong at noon? (...)

The operation reportedly started at 3am, with stake-out forces stationing themselves near the hotel's entrances and exits, with a few disguising themselves as guests. Problem was, nobody knew for sure which rooms the targets - Arisman, Suporn Attawong, Payap Panket and Jeng Dokjik - were staying in. The four reportedly arrived at the hotel at around 4am.

Then around 6am another group of officers, purportedly working for an assistant police chief, arrived. One of them then committed a grave blunder by asking the hotel reception for house keys that could open all suspicious rooms.

That apparently did it. Phone calls must have been made by certain staff members and within minutes red shirts living nearby were gathering at the hotel. By the time the two groups of officers became aware of each other's presence, the hotel was crawling with red shirts. (...)

The police called their superiors and requested commando reinforcements. Through all these hectic developments, the hotel staff managed to buy time and kept the house keys away from the now restless, and pretty much clueless, officers.

When the policemen finally got hold of the keys, Arisman was already playing a Mission Impossible hero, albeit with some difficulty due to his weight. His face was white and he appeared disoriented once he dropped himself to safety, into numerous red hands waiting to grab him on the ground.

"An embarrassing fiasco for govt", The Nation, April 16, 2010

Arisman Pongruengrong, a former singer turned activist, is one of the more radical persons inside the red shirt movement and is also believed to have stirred up the emotions at the storm onto the parliament, which then triggered the state of emergency.

It didn't take long after the botched arrest attempt for the red shirts to take offense in this and soon after that Arisman appeared on stage and more or less declared open season on prime minister Abhisit.

Speaking of Abhisit, he has made his first public appearance after days of suspicious absence and his response to the embarrassment was somehow unprecedented.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, speaking in a special television broadcast on all stations, said Gen. Anupong Paochinda would take charge of the peacekeeping force meant to prevent violence by red-shirted protesters who are seeking to topple his government.

"A decision has been made to make the command line more effective and swifter," Abhisit said. "Therefore I have made an order to change the person in charge to Anupong, the army commander."

Anupong's appointment sends a signal that Abhisit is willing to raise the stakes in his standoff with the tens of thousands of mostly rural protesters camping in the Thai capital by letting the army take direct charge of security. Thai media have reported widely that junior commanders are itching to move against the protesters.

"Thai army chief takes charge of restoring order", by Associated Press, April 16, 2010

Bangkok Pundit has more quotes and also analyses what this move could mean for the next few days.